01.03.2012 Poor CBass, Nice Tog

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FishReport 1/2/12 <o:p></o:p>

PoorCbass/Nice Tog<o:p></o:p>

NewYear Firsts <o:p></o:p>

Tovarishch MuRFSS <o:p></o:p>



TogTrips 1/5/12 & 1/6/12 - Thursday & Friday - 7 to 3 - TwelveSells Out - Green Crabs Provided - Will Check Weekend Forecasts As TheWeek Progresses..<o:p></o:p>



HiAll, <o:p></o:p>

OurNew Year began fine & calm; We tied her loose while marina pilingsreflected perfectly off mirror-like waters tinged in sunrise's orangehues.. <o:p></o:p>


Afterthe thrashing we'd gotten the morning before, I was ready for somesmooth sailing. <o:p></o:p>


Although we'dcaught 150 fish per-person, Saturday's sea bassing left much to bedesired. Running further off, a lot further off, would have fixed it.Conditions too dicey; I sent 'em home with dinner, a partial tripcredit and memories of an astronomical throwback ratio. A poor finishto a pretty good year of cbassing.. <o:p></o:p>


NewYear's Day however, was great. <o:p></o:p>

Firstsunrise at sea on the First day of toggin was splendid. <o:p></o:p>

First togwas a 23 inch dandy ..newcomer spoiled on his first drop. <o:p></o:p>

Firstlimit went to Delaware Mike @ 9:16 AM. <o:p></o:p>

Firstbroken rod - anonymous and wondering where his receipt is. <o:p></o:p>

Firstserious tog went to John M with a 27 3/4 inch male. <o:p></o:p>

Firstrod overboard went to, well, I don't want to mention Ol' TwoFingers by name -- He was also high-hook. <o:p></o:p>

Firstsnagged-it-back rod of 2012 goes to me, I Franked it (snagged with twohooks) and gave it back.. <o:p></o:p>


A well-pacedbite with good flurries of action; We took a boat limit with no fish under 16inches & tagged about 35 more up to 24 inches: Only 3 tags weresub-legal. <o:p></o:p>


HappyNew Year indeed.. <o:p></o:p>


If Icould get management to see what I've seen with tog they'd understand"Reef Restoration Makes Fishery Restoration Simple" a lot better <o:p></o:p>

..andgrasp why I think chasing illusions of catch has been time wasted. Sensibleregulation with a lot more oysters & coral will take us where we wantto go; Fishery Restoration beyond what we now imagine made possible. <o:p></o:p>



Listeningto Shostakovich's 10th as I write; here the Venezuelan Youth Orchestra knocksit out of the park..


TheSoviet composer survived Stalin's terrors while several times writingwhole symphonies that would have landed him atop the 'purge' list had TheParty understood his music's meaning.. <o:p></o:p>


Now USrecreational fisheries have had their 'great purge' as well. Accusations ofoverfishing almost always baseless; Bankruptcies & divorcesneedless, Our runaway size & creel regulations created in vacuous,implausible catch estimate's need; Lopsided state to state lawsseen as rational only to true MRFSS believers.. In twomore weeks we MuRFSS survivors can celebrate as this great composer didafter Stalin's funeral <o:p></o:p>

..Ithink. <o:p></o:p>


Yousee, new catch data Congressionally mandated by January 1st, 2009 is finallydue out January 13, 2012 -- Friday the 13th. <o:p></o:p>

"We'rescared to death" one top scientist told me. <o:p></o:p>

Good:That means management is establishing a real connection with the fishingcommunity. We've lived in fear of every data set & management'sresponse for almost 15 years. <o:p></o:p>


Thefishery science community is worried they'll have to redo a largepart of recreational catch impacts to fish population estimates,the stock assessments. Here the simple math of subtracting how many fishwere caught from how many they think are out there will now become farmore complex because no one would throw out the flyers--the ultra high catchestimates, nor raise the zeros--the far too low estimates: A great dealof fisheries work will soon be without scientific foundation. <o:p></o:p>

Easymoney gone, here come real estimates. <o:p></o:p>

Ithink.. <o:p></o:p>


OnJanuary 13th the public gets to see what MRIP has come up with. Fishersof Red Snapper, Grouper, Black Sea Bass, Tautog, Flounder, Cod &Haddock have all had major season cutbacks & Emergency Closureswhere advance sales were suddenly vacuumed away because of MuRFSS"verified" overfishing; We've all had revenues shrink assize & creel limits ran away from reality. <o:p></o:p>

Andthat's just the partyboats.. <o:p></o:p>


Ifthe new program, MRIP, is as accurate as I hope it is --based in part onlicense sales, a body-count of fishermen MuRFSS never had-- then manyof the old catch estimating program's wildest overestimates are about toget exposed: All those times when "We Can't Change It"was management's refrain are about to get turned into a mountain of work. <o:p></o:p>


Bayesianstops and considerations of statistical probability werenever contemplated by the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey.(MuRFSS) No, even now the 2010 Massachusetts private boat estimate whereprivate boats supposedly caught more cod in April, 2010 thanin the previous 4 years combined; An estimate that "proves"these private boats caught more fish for the first time ever -and most ofthose just in April- than the region's incredibly skilled &knowledgeable commercial trawl fishers; An estimate that threatens everycod fisher, recreational & commercial, north of Cape Cod: Anold-school estimate forcing huge changes in fisherymanagement while new MRIP data is available for NOAA & NMFSinternal review: Even Now Management Will Not Back Away From Bad Data. <o:p></o:p>

"Itsthe best data available. We have to use it." <o:p></o:p>


Yes,But of course Comrade. If this is what the Party has provided you - Pravda! <o:p></o:p>


Shostakovich:"Those who have ears will hear." <o:p></o:p>


Intwo weeks MuRFSS will be lying on the dacha floor, the Terrors nearly over.. <o:p></o:p>

Thosewho have eyes will then see. <o:p></o:p>


Sensibleregulation with a lot more oyster & coral habitat will take uswhere we want to go; Fishery Restoration beyond what we now imagine willbe made possible by honest science & recognizing the EcologicalImpossibility of re-creating yesteryear's fish populations with today'shabitat: Reef Restoration Makes Fishery Restoration Simple. <o:p></o:p>





Capt.Monty Hawkins

Party Boat "Morning Star"

Reservation Line 410 520 2076<o:p></o:p>

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