Skylar

11.20.2011 Cbass very OK &The science of Mackerel

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FishReport 11/20/11 <o:p></o:p>

CbassVery OK <o:p></o:p>

TheScience on Mackerel <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Monday,Nov 21st - Inshore Tautog -- 4 Fish Limit -- Sell Out at 12 -- 7 to 3-- $100.00 <o:p></o:p>

LongSea Bass the 23rd, 25th & 26th -- 6 to 4 -- $125.00 <o:p></o:p>

RegularTog -- Nov 27 & 28th -- 14 Sells Out -- 7 to 3 -- $100.00 <o:p></o:p>

JustA Two Day Window: If The Weather's Fit On The 29th & 30th I'll Consider(Really) Long Tog/Cbass Trips Before MD Tog Close In December.. <o:p></o:p>

WillAbsolutely Be Going Long For Cbass In December -- Trips Announced ViaEmail <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Pleasearrive 1/2 hour before scheduled departure with food, water, beverage & amedium-sized cooler w/ice for fish. Bait is provided but you're welcome tobring your own. We often -almost always- leave early. Show up late and you'llsee the west end of an east bound boat. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

HiAll, <o:p></o:p>

Weather'slooking iffy for Wednesday's long cbass trip. South-West is the hardest wind tocall though -- could easily break our favor. <o:p></o:p>

Longrange weather forecast after TG offers high hopes. We'll see! <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Tucked inunder the beach Friday-past. Weatherman said high NW winds wouldlay down by mid-morn.

We caught tog--some limits; all left with dinner. <o:p></o:p>

Butit was a sea bass trip. Wind still honking, I threw in the towel and gavea great-big credit for another trip. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Saturdaywe nearly limited the boat on cbass. Nice. <o:p></o:p>

Latefall is about catching LOTS of sea bass, not jumbos. Still, fellow snuck a 51/4 pounder over the rail - swept the pool.<o:p></o:p>

Handfulof big bluefish Saturday as well. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Caught somecbass limits Sunday even though spiny dogs had us on the run. We'dget half an hour--less--and they'd have our scent. Dogs so thick they werechasing sea bass up in packs. Eating bait & hammered jigs: A nuisance. <o:p></o:p>

After4 moves--each time leaving good fish--they left us alone to finish our day. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Once,just once, did I wish for a pack of dogs. It was the day aftera decent sign of mackerel and herring in April 1993 if I recall right. Ihad a good load of people anxious to re-live mackerel past. We'd beenstaying in front of saddleback (common) dolphin who were pushing a wall offish.. <o:p></o:p>

Isuppose they pushed 'em all night. It was the only day I was ever completelyskunked; Would have loved some spiny dogfish that day.. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Thenwe thought mackerel were 'moving' east, that we were missing the run. <o:p></o:p>

Whalersalways thought their quarry was moving north or south; Thought so until theonly whales were amid ice flows ..animals moving? Or getting wiped out regionby region.. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Thenext time I saw mackerel was within the biggest gathering of fin whalesI've ever seen feeding. The whales had the macks balled up in an incrediblemass -- 150 feet of water, fish were 120 feet thick. Dropping into themwas like hitting sand bottom in the back-bay.. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Thatwas also the last time I saw mackerel, atlantic mackerel--used to callem Boston mackerel.. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

So Iwas very interested when I scanned through a paper titled, "Impactsof Interannual Environmental Forcing and Climate Change on the Distribution ofAtlantic Mackerel..." <o:p></o:p>

Makeno mistake, I understand climate change is real: I believe regularsuccessful completion of the NW Passage beginning in 2009 speaksvolumes. <o:p></o:p>

Inthe 1500s countries offered fantastic wealth to any who could find theNW passage, the waterway above North America. Men with fleets ofboats risked everything to try: Many died, All failed. <o:p></o:p>

Theice that blocked them is no more: Our planet warms. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

However,I also believe warming's effects on Mid-Atlantic fisheries is serving as ascapegoat for poor, unfunded & unrecognized-in-need fishery management. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Wehave cod off the coast of MD in steadily increasing numbers. I advertised themfor the first time since the mid/late 70s last winter. <o:p></o:p>

Wedo not have increasing numbers of spadefish, amberjack or king mackerel. <o:p></o:p>

Basedon those fishery observations one could logically conclude our waters arecooling. I believe that is the case with bottom temps owing to ice melt flowingalong the Labrador current. <o:p></o:p>

Butbecause surface temps are very slightly up, I think we shouldhave more mid-water southern species. <o:p></o:p>

We had farmore southern species during the 80s than we do today. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Aresouthern species moving south because of ice-melt? Or did all the spadefish& amberjack that used to cover the shoal-water wrecks get caught?<o:p></o:p>

Ithink those shallow wrecks & reefs catch the uppermost thermocline --warmer.....<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Ling,red hake in the book, has a life cycle tied to scallop populations.According to "The First Year in the Life of Estuarine Fishes in theMiddle Atlantic Bight" ling live inside a livescallop from when they are an inch long to 4 1/2inches; leave the scallop only at night to feed. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Fact:We're catching cod every month of the year; But our region's red hakeare said to be in decline because of warming waters, its saidthat their decline has nothing to do with scallop effort shiftingsouth upon large area closures in early management, management almost 2 decadesago.. <o:p></o:p>

Seemsthere's never a single bullet-wound in fishery collapse, no straight linepointing to CAUSE. <o:p></o:p>

Still,its curious that now, while regional scallop effort is in decline and managementmore fine-tuned, we are seeing more red hake.... <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Anotherpaper came out recently saying weather cycles rule the fisheries -- the"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation." However scholarly; by the timeit gets down here, down to the fleet and around the docks, "Nothingwe can do. Its the sun & moon." <o:p></o:p>

Letsmanage fish with astrology too. <o:p></o:p>

Irritating.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Themackerel paper claims recreational catches were in decline through the 70s,that the fishery's decline was slow & steady.<o:p></o:p>

Ifished macks from MD party boats all through the 80s. We often had weeks offull coolers & trash cans; had clients exhausted from catching; hadnumerous days when the pace of catch could not possibly have been increasedwith the gear we had & numerous days when we couldn't have carried morepeople with the boats we had either: I absolutely refute there was a noticeabledecline in either recreational effort or catch during the 80s as stated in the "Impacts.." paper.In fact, I'd call the authors' assertion of a slow decline so misleadingas to be disingenuous. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Whilegill nets played a minor role in the fishery, traditionally& into the 80s the first trawler to catch macks got good money;successive catches were paid less & less until, after just a few days, theywere not worth catching -- so they didn't. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Twentyyears ago MAFMC allowed huge foreign processors,floating factories, in for one year. US trawlers caught and soldmacks to them. Mackerel were an underutilized species, represented a poor useof our natural resources. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Itwas that exact time, 1991, when we lost the recreationalmackerel fishery. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Muchslower in 1992; within a few years we could not dependably catch mackerelanymore. Clients quickly tired of whippings..<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Onthe Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's web site (MAFMC) there used to bea 'Hooray for us, We did it!' sort of claim that they addressed overfishing ofmackerel. <o:p></o:p>

Mightstill be there. <o:p></o:p>

Whatit didn't say was they started management after collapsing the southernstock.. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Habitatfidelity runs throughout the fisheries, there's no reason to believe mackerelare any different. As in the salmons, just because there's no separatespeciation doesn't mean exerting finer management control over fish populationswith distinct regional fidelity isn't crucial to success. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Becausethe heat has been turned completely off in this part of their range I sincerelyhope that we'll one day see a resurgent stock. <o:p></o:p>

Asof now it would only be a lucky break: Management has no regional focus. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

The"Impacts of Interannual Environmental Forcing and Climate Change onthe Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel..." has a wealth ofsupporting data. <o:p></o:p>

Curiously,my assertion that a strong pulse of fishing effort in a single year leadto a regional collapse is borne out in the data -- at least the data I canaccess. <o:p></o:p>

Idon't know enough about commercial data to know its flaws -- below is whatthere is for the Mid-Atlantic States. <o:p></o:p>

I ama certified MRFSS hater, but below MRFSS does what it was designed to do:Exact numbers meaningless, the data shows we were catching a lot & now weare catching none. <o:p></o:p>

That'sa pretty sharp decline in the early 90s -- not indicative of slow habitatchange -- and made of MRFSS data present-day management wouldsanctimoniously throw my family into the street with -- Its the Best AvailableScience you know.. <o:p></o:p>

Unlessthey can blame the weather. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Southernstocks of scup, red hake, mackerel & cod; Northern populationsof spadefish, the jacks: Then too regionally defined weakfish, sea bass --even our tautog which may spend their whole life on but a few acres ofbottom: Management without regional quota, without recognition of regionalsub-stocks, is management prone to uncontrolled regional spikes in fishingeffort and wild fish population swings. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Seedata charts below.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Wecan't fix what management won't accept as a problem of its own creation:Before ANY fishery is said to be affected by climate change, a serious lookinto human cause needs to be had. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Regards,<o:p></o:p>

Monty<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

CommercialCatch 1988 To 1995

Species: MACKEREL, ATLANTIC

All Mid-Atlantic States Combined <o:p></o:p>

Data is from sales -- fish weighed & sold. <o:p></o:p>

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

Year<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

Species<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

Metric Tons<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

Pounds<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

$<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1988<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3,929.7<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8,663,500<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

899,587<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1989<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3,212.7<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

7,082,800<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

870,817<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1990<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2,742.2<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

6,045,509<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

703,295<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1991<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8,573.8<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

18,901,803<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2,001,866<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1992<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

4,288.8<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

9,455,144<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

708,021<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1993<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,437.8<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3,169,867<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

336,885<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1994<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2,918.5<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

6,434,109<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

626,148<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1995<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] MACKEREL, ATLANTIC<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2,453.0<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

5,407,951<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

732,355<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] GRAND TOTALS:<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

-<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

29,556.7<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

65,160,683<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

6,878,974<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3]

Species: ATLANTIC MACKEREL -- All Mid-Atlantic Recreational Effort -- Numbers of Fish -- PSE Column Meaningless, Ignore<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

Year<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

HARVEST (TYPE A + B1)<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

PSE<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1987<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

4,153,049<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

22.1<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1988<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

861,897<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

41.1<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1989<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,095,497<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

24.1<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1990<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,279,454<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

27.2<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1991<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2,066,428<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

20<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1992<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

201,813<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

41<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1993<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

141,672<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

35.3<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1994<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

150,775<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

48.6<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1995<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,009,792<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

43<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1996<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

489,951<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

30.1<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1997<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,239,963<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

19.5<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1998<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

168,480<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

61.7<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 1999<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

438,783<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

26.8<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2000<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

126,842<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

31.8<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2001<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

276,120<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

28<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2002<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

120,494<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

83.7<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2003<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

56,572<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

37.2<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2004<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

11,157<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

26.6<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2005<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

30,551<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

24.2<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2007<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2008<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

18,550<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

58.5<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2009<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

17,595<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

71.4<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2010<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

42<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

100.3<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent] 2011<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1,522<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

80.3<o:p></o:p>

[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

<o:p> </o:p>

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