2048 is predicted....

[chomper]

to be a bad year to be a fish or fisherman.....

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Clambakes, crabcakes, swordfish steaks and even humble fish sticks could be little more than a fond memory in a few decades.
If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, the populations of just about all seafood face collapse by 2048, a team of ecologists and economists warns in a report in Friday's issue of the journal Science.
"Whether we looked at tide pools or studies over the entire world's ocean, we saw the same picture emerging. In losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems," said the lead author Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. (Watch how the seafood on your plate may become a thing of the past -- 3:10)
"I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are -- beyond anything we suspected," Worm said.
While the study focused on the oceans, concerns have been expressed by ecologists about threats to fish in the Great Lakes and other lakes, rivers and freshwaters, too.
Worm and an international team spent four years analyzing 32 controlled experiments, other studies from 48 marine protected areas and global catch data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's database of all fish and invertebrates worldwide from 1950 to 2003.
The scientists also looked at a 1,000-year time series for 12 coastal regions, drawing on data from archives, fishery records, sediment cores and archaeological data.
"At this point 29 percent of fish and seafood species have collapsed -- that is, their catch has declined by 90 percent. It is a very clear trend, and it is accelerating," Worm said. "If the long-term trend continues, all fish and seafood species are projected to collapse within my lifetime -- by 2048."
"It looks grim and the projection of the trend into the future looks even grimmer," he said. "But it's not too late to turn this around. It can be done, but it must be done soon. We need a shift from single species management to ecosystem management. It just requires a big chunk of political will to do it."
The researchers called for new marine reserves, better management to prevent overfishing and tighter controls on pollution.
In the 48 areas worldwide that have been protected to improve marine biodiversity, they found, "diversity of species recovered dramatically, and with it the ecosystem's productivity and stability."
While seafood forms a crucial concern in their study, the researchers were analyzing overall biodiversity of the oceans. The more species in the oceans, the better each can handle exploitation.
"Even bugs and weeds make clear, measurable contributions to ecosystems," said co-author J. Emmett Duffy of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences.
The National Fisheries Institute, a trade association for the seafood industry, does not share the researchers alarm.
"Fish stocks naturally fluctuate in population," the institute said in a statement. "By developing new technologies that capture target species more efficiently and result in less impact on other species or the environment, we are helping to ensure our industry does not adversely affect surrounding ecosystems or damage native species.
Seafood has become a growing part of Americans' diet in recent years. Consumption totaled 16.6 pounds per person in 2004, the most recent data available, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That compares with 15.2 pounds in 2000.
Joshua Reichert, head of the private Pew Charitable Trusts' environment program, pointed out that worldwide fishing provides $80 billion in revenue and 200 million people depend on it for their livelihoods. For more than 1 billion people, many of whom are poor, fish is their main source of protein, he said.
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation's National Center for Ecological Synthesis and Analysis.


http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science....ap/index.html

[trowpa]

The frustrating part is - as fragile as things are, they are just as resiliant. Given some restraint and protection, nature can bounce back amazingly quick - but the "political will" as the article says is what's needed...and no one ever wants to think long term.....

[chomper]

More to the story.....

Nov 8, 2006 — BEIJING (Reuters) - Declining fish stocks mean that in some parts of the world fishermen are increasingly turning their attention to sharks, where a lack of regulation further threatens many species' survival, an environmentalist said on Wednesday.
Sharks are caught not only for their fins — a popular dish at Chinese banquets — but increasingly for their meat, said Sarah Fowler, co-chair of the World Conservation Union's shark specialist group.
Over-fishing threatens 20 percent of the world's 547 shark and ray species with extinction, the World Conservation Union — also known as IUCN — said earlier this year.
"It is a relatively recent phenomenon that as other fish stocks decline and become managed, sharks become increasingly important as an alternative catch," Fowler told a news conference in Beijing, where she was attending a shark conservation meeting.
"In Europe, as we see important fisheries like cod become increasingly regulated, fishermen can switch to shark and ray fisheries which have no management," Fowler added. "On the high seas, as tuna stocks are depleted, sharks are becoming increasingly important in catches."
Only a few countries manage their shark populations, such as Australia and the United States, and regulation in the European Union is patchy or non-existent.
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization estimates 100 million sharks are caught each year, though experts say the real figure could be twice that, leading to a dramatic drop in the populations of some species.
Many sharks are caught just for their fins, which are hacked off by fishermen who then dump the dying sharks into the sea.
Sharks' fin, once offered as a gift to emperors, is traditionally served at Chinese wedding banquets and occasions when the host wants to impress guests with expensive and unusual dishes. Some also believe it is good for health.
"Perhaps the most important cause of declining shark stocks is the huge international trade demand for shark fin," Fowler said.
Agreements to manage shark catches to within sustainable levels — and many species reproduce slowly — are not being implemented fast enough, she said, adding shark stocks and perhaps entire species could be wiped out if fisheries management and biodiversity conservation tools were not used.
Researchers said last week the world's fish and seafood populations would collapse by 2048 if current trends in habitat destruction and overfishing continued.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2637689